NIGERIA MAY EXPERIENCE INCREASED VOTER APATHY IN SUBSEQUENT ELECTIONS

The 2023 election is done, but the realities are dawning on us. The pre-election and post-election realities communicated and revealed vital issues around the nation, as well as people’s resolutions about the electoral process and democracy. These were drawn from various conversations emerging from the 2023 national election. It unveiled how Nigeria may experience an unusual decline in people’s involvement in subsequent elections.

Over the years, Nigerians have shown some level of trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission's capacity to be free, fair, and transparent in the pre and post-election processes. But with the recent happenings in the nation’s electoral and political system, Nigerians’ electoral enthusiasm level has dropped, as only little percentage of the overall registered voters eventually turned out to vote on election day. From the records, in 2023, INEC registered 93,469,008, accredited voters 25,286,616, while 23,377,466 eventually voted on election day. In 2015, 67.42 million Nigerians registered to vote. However, the election recorded only 29.43 million votes cast, representing a 43.65% voter turnout. In 2019, 84 million Nigerians registered to vote (INEC data). These statistics reflect the dwindling level of voters’ interest and trust in the electoral system and political leaders, despite the introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) which should have boosted people’s confidence in election results.

The Akwa Ibom State Resident Electoral Commissioner, Mike Igini, recently attributed voter apathy in Nigeria to the inability of political parties and candidates to deliver on their promises. He also added that poor mobilisation by political parties and candidates, and the influence of money to sabotage election results are also major causes of apathy.

Voter apathy undermines and threatens the reality of Nigeria’s democracy. The increasing trend of public disinterest in or indifference towards the electoral and democratic processes is a major challenge to democracy. Unarguably, this is what directly influences low voter turnout in elections. Electoral participation is an imperative department of democracy since it allows citizens to get involved in the political process and determine who leads them. Unequivocally, electoral participation is a key indicator of people’s belief in democratic processes. Accountability, representative, and legitimacy deficit can be said to be the reasons for citizens’ low participation in electoral processes.

Statistics show that low citizen participation in the voting process started when Nigeria became democratic in 1999. The data reveal that while Nigerians consistently participate in voter registration, they are less enthusiastic about casting their votes on election day as they weren't sure if their votes will count. For instance, In the 2019 electoral process, Nigeria recorded the lowest voter turnout in Africa, despite the increase in registered voters and awareness. The intention is clear: Nigerian voters believe the decision of who wins the election is mainly determined by the powers that be and not the votes cast by the electorates. Election results might not accurately reflect the public’s choice. Besides, Nigerians also believe they haven’t enjoyed the dividends of democracy as they should.

Data from INEC on previous elections show that only a small percentage of Nigeria’s voting population votes on election day. Take the 2023 general election as an example, where only 25,286,616 people voted on election day out of 93,469,008 registered. Unfortunately, the shortfall in voting behaviour is a challenge to democracy and progressive governance.

Statistics from INEC confirm the worrisome trend in voter turnout in Nigeria’s elections: 52.3% in 1999; 69% in 2003; 57.5% in 2007; 53.7% in 2011; 43.7% in 2015; 34.8% in 2019 and 29% in 2023.

Voter Apathy in the United States

According to the Pew Research Center, only 55.7 percent of the USA voting age population cast ballots in the 2016 presidential election. This percentage is a slight increase from the 2012 election, but lower than the 2008 election, which had record numbers. Voter turnout numbers in the United States are quite low compared to other developed nations. The United States was ranked 31 out of the 35 countries in this study. The Census Bureau recorded that there were roughly 245.5 million Americans who were eligible to vote, but only 157.6 million eligible voters were registered to vote. The United States Election Project had similar findings, estimating apathy slightly higher: 46.9 percent of eligible voters did not vote in 2016

Voter Apathy in Canada

Canada's voter turnout has remained relatively high compared to other developed democracies. In 2019, the share of the voting-age population registered to vote is around 93 percent. In the 2019 federal election, 77 percent of eligible voters reported that they had cast a ballot. However, one study highlights that the primary reason individuals abstained from voting in 2019 is due to a lack of interest in politics, at 35 percent, followed by 22 percent of non-voters who indicated that they were busy.

In Nigeria, voter apathy is fuelled by a lack of trust in the electoral process, candidates’ credibility, dividends of democracy, electoral violence, etc. There is a huge demand on the elected President, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, to rebuild the dwindling trust in the electoral process and political officeholders.